(Note: this blog will not be "endorsing" any candidates until summer of 2008; this is provided as intellectual discussion only for the present)
Your first reaction is probably something like "U.S. voters won't elect another Bush" or "Americans will reject a political dynasty". But this blog wouldn't be the first to suggest that as the VP on the GOP ticket, Bush could be a net benefit.
Although it is nauseatingly early to predict the 2008 elections, most polls have two moderates (Guiliani and McCain) as current front runners and a reformed moderate (Romney) closing ground. The largest concern for a moderate GOP candidate (or a moderate Democrat candidate) in the general election would be retaining the base while appealing to the middle. This is not new and have been discussed elsewhere in detail.
Guiliani is claiming outright to be a moderate, and his strategy appears to be to appeal to the middle percentage of the country that may consider voting any candidate, regardless of party. According to Gallup Poll, "[i]t is clear that Rudy Giuliani in fact does receive a lower percentage of the vote from highly religious Republicans than he does among those who attend church less frequently" (Newport, 2007). He is hoping that the far right will not stay home and vote for his stance on the war on terror and economic positions. McCain has been campaigning in a similar manner, although he has been making more of an effort to reach out to the social conservatives. Both he and Guiliani have had limited success reaching this important GOP segment, although this could be because the election is a long time from now and this group will not consider backing a moderate unless the choice is between a moderate and a liberal. Romney has been actively positioning himself has the social conservative among the front runners, although he is routinely addressing media stories about his former positions. (I don't remember as much media interest when Democrat candidates were once pro-life but are running pro-choice, but that's an issue for another day...)
Bottom line: a strong conservative VP candidate will likely assuage many concerns from the far right - at least enough to get them to vote for the GOP ticket. Strong and early hints of a conservative VP selection may even allow the candidates the ability to campaign further toward the middle at earlier stages of the campaign cycle. But now the question present is whether Jeb Bush could fill that role.
Jeb has received a lot of press recently painting him as some type of potential conservative savior of the GOP, from Eleanor Clift's claim in Newsweek that he is the religious right's dream candidate, to the Washington Post's exultation of his recent January speech at the Conservative Summit:
At a time when the conservative movement is looking bereft, humbled by midterm-election defeats and hungering for a presidential candidate to rally around, Jeb Bush delivered yesterday in Washington a resounding endorsement of conservative principles, bringing his audience repeatedly to its feet (Goldfarb, 2007).
Just last night, MSNBC's Tucker Carlson had a panel discussing Jeb's political future, and the panel was taking great pains to separate Jeb from the current President. It's clear that there is a growing theme in the media that is attempting to remind the American public that Jeb and W. are two different people. The Washington Post even have an article in the Outlook section entitled What Would Jeb Do? Granted, the article is more of a long criticism of the current President, but still is an attempt to separate Jeb from any negative opinion of the current administration. This is what you would expect to occur if the GOP wanted to minimize the negatives associated with Jeb's last name.
On the other side of the coin, let's remember the fastest growing minority group: the Hispanics. A few months ago, John Zogby wrote that "[w]ith a highly competitive election in 2008 and a heavy voter registration drive, we could be looking at an electorate that includes a Hispanic component amounting to 10% of 130 million voters in 2008" (2006). He also noted that within the Hispanic community, a growing trend is occurring: almost one in four Hispanics now consider themselves evangelical. Jeb Bush can appeal to both of these elements whereas the leading presidential candidates may have some difficulties.
One final point: if Hillary Clinton secures the nomination for the Democrats, then the complaint about the "Bush dynasty" will largely go away for two reason. First, the Democrats will not use that charge against the GOP during the campaign because they won't want to remind the voters that the Clintons could fall in the same category. Second, the media will likely only give the issue lip service for the same reason. If the media is biased left (again, a topic for another day...) then they won't bring up an issue that is more likely to hurt the Democratic Presidential candidate than the Republican VP candidate.
References:- Goldfarb, Z. (2007, January 28). Jeb Bush Rallies Conservatives at Summit. The Washington Post. Retrieved March 17, 2007, from http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/27/AR2007012701171.html
- Newport, F. (2007, March 15). Highly Religious Republicans Less Likely to Support Giuliani. Gallup Poll. Retrieved March 17, 2007, from http://www.galluppoll.com/content/default.aspx?ci=26884
- Zogby, J. (2006, November 29). The Battle for the Latino Vote. The Huffington Post. Retrieved March 17, 2007, from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-zogby/the-battle-for-the-latino_b_35164.html.
